2018-07-03
在讨论人工智能(AI)对人类工作的影响时,有些极端情况值得关注。一方面,一些新闻头条警告说机器人将会取代人类工作;另一方面,一些专家说AI绝不会取代人类工作。
然而,越来越多的人似乎持折中态度。2017年普华永道调查发现,尽管有46%的受访者认为AI会取代一些工作,但大多数受访者认为AI会给人类带来好处。63%的受访者认为AI将有助于解决困扰现代社会的复杂问题,53%表示AI会帮助人们实现更丰富的生活。
AI和机器人会取代一些繁琐的手动任务,这会使员工有时间进行其它活动或帮助解决人才短缺问题。在某些领域,人类和机器可以协同工作,以达到各自独立无法实现的目标。此外,机器学习和相关技术可以创造新的工作。
据麦肯锡研究人员说,“自动化在未来十年将会消除极少数职业,也会对几乎所有职业产生或多或少的影响。”该公司表示,美国员工,包括薪水非常高的员工,花费约三分之一的时间来收集和处理数据,他们可以利用机器更有效地处理这种任务。
Gartner副总裁兼研究员Stephen Prentice说:“AI和人类最终将彼此区分开来。AI在解决明确定义的少数问题上是最成功的,而人类擅长定义需要解决的问题和解决复杂的问题。他们带来广泛的知识和技能,以各种方式解决问题。他们可以彼此合作,当情况出现明显变化时,人类可以进行调整。”
在IT工作中,AI已经开始产生影响。今天,自动化和机器学习工具可以处理以前由人类执行的许多任务。Gartner预测,“AI将最终取代IT组织的许多常规功能,特别是在操作方面。”
可能受AI影响的许多IT工作主要在当前人才需求高的领域。随着机器能够越来越好地执行这些任务,AI可能会替代某些人类工作,导致这些工作的就业前景较差。然而,AI也可以在不取代人类的情况下帮助人类提高效率。
AI能够执行哪些IT工作呢?以下是10个可能的候选项。
一些科技公司,包括Facebook,Microsoft,IBM和Amazon Web Services,推出了一些能够帮助组织创建与客户进行对话的聊天机器人的工具。许多组织已经开始尝试使用这些聊天机器人来回答简单的客户服务或技术支持问题。此外,人们对聊天机器人的态度似乎很开放。2017年HubSpot调查发现,57%的受访者表示愿意从人类获得帮助,40%的受访者表示,只要能够解决问题,他们不在乎是人类还是机器人与其对话的。许多聊天机器人融合了机器学习技术,这意味着随着时间的推移,他们能够更好地回答问题。
虽然聊天机器人目前只能处理简单的问题,但是将来,它们将会更好地回答复杂的问题,减少人类代理回答客户问题的需求。
不过,据美国劳工统计局(BLS)统计,服务台专家2016年的平均收入是52160美元,市场增长速度高于平均水平。
系统管理员负责部署、配置、维护、监控和管理组织服务器或其它计算机系统。在DevOps趋势的推动下,系统管理员近年来越来越依赖自动化来帮助他们处理诸如服务器配置和软件更新这样的常规任务。此外,许多监控工具开始引入机器学习和AI功能,从而减少误报数量,并且在某些情况下提前向系统管理员发出警报,以便他们采取预防措施。在这方面,AI很可能会增强人类员工的能力,而不是完全取代他们。
BLS报告称,2016年网络和计算机系统管理员的平均收入为79700美元,该领域的增长速度为平均水平。
网络管理员负责维护组织的网络并提供用户期望的服务。这包括配置和更新设备,如路由器、交换机、网关、集线器和接入点。在某些情况下,该工作还包括网络安全责任。
专家说,为了实现真正的数字转型,未来的网络将需要AI能力,以跟上时代变化的步伐。企业已经通过网络管理自动化工具朝着这个方向迈出了一步,其中一些工具的五年投资回报率高达350%。
在其数据库中,BLS未将网络管理员与系统管理员进行区分,因此系统管理员的年收入约为79700美元,增长速度为平均水平。
存储管理员处理存储硬件(包括HDD,SDD和磁带)和存储软件的日常维护任务。他们确保数据按计划进行备份、监控硬件性能、解决空间不足问题、优化存储使用模式、规划未来发展并部署新的硬件和软件。
但是存储专家指出,许多手动任务可以由自动化和AI工具来处理。因为它们能够分析海量数据,所以机器学习应用程序在优化I/O存储模式、管理数据生命周期和预测硬件故障方面可能会比人类更好。在不久的将来,存储管理员可能会花费大部分时间给存储管理软件下命令,然后把问题留给AI和自动化工具处理。
BLS没有将存储管理员作为单独的职位进行追踪。
在组织部署内部或面向客户的应用程序之前,这些应用程序必须经过彻底的测试,以了解它们如何在真实环境中执行。质量保证(QA)或测试员已经开始使用自动化工具了。 Infosysare等厂商致力于将机器学习集成到质量保证解决方案中,以优化测试流程,更好地分析测试日志,更快地诊断和解决问题。在这种情况下,AI和人类很可能会协作,AI可以帮助人类完成任务,并且具备较高的熟练程度。
BLS没有追踪质量保证和测试专业人员的薪酬和工作前景,但是根据Robert Half 2017年技术专业人员薪资指南,美国的质量保证专家/分析师2017年预计将赚取67000至102750美元,比2016年增长2.7%。
将复杂的项目管理放在AI能够处理的工作清单上似乎不太对,但是Gartner特别指出,项目经理是面临被AI取代(至少部分取代)的IT职位之一。
典型的项目经理花费大量时间收集和输入有关谁做了什么的数据。AI系统可以轻松地接管这类工作,向团队成员部署任务,甚至更好地自动收集数据。此外,项目经理经常需要估计一个项目需要多长时间,花费多少。机器学习工具能够分析类似项目的大量数据,以更准确地完成任务。此外,AI也非常擅长分配资源和制定时间表。
一些具有这些功能的工具已经投放市场,未来,AI将进一步增强项目经理的能力,使他们能够一次处理更多的项目。
BLS指出,项目经理在2016年的平均收入为135800美元,该领域的就业人数每年都增长15%,远高于平均水平。Robert Half 薪资指南指出,2017年项目经理的收入在107750美元到159000美元之间,比2016年增长了3.2%。
随着大数据趋势横扫美国各个行业,更多的人进入了数据分析领域。事实上,组织对高技能数据科学家的需求非常之高,以至于开始转向AI,以便帮助技能较低的数据分析师执行高级分析。
今天的许多预测分析工具集成了机器学习功能,可以帮助数据分析师更快地处理更多的数据,并提供宝贵的意见。这是一个AI更多地帮助人类而非取代人类的时代。在某些情况下,AI技术实际上增加了人类使用这些工具的需求。
BLS没有将数据分析师作为一个单独的工作类别进行追踪,但Robert Half IT薪资指南指出,2017年数据分析师/报告作家的薪资在77500美元到118750美元之间,比2016年高出3.8%。
数据库管理员处理数据库的部署、配置、优化、调优、监控、管理和故障排除等任务。 一些计算机科学家指出AI可以执行其中的一些工作,特别是监控、诊断和解决问题。然而,市场上似乎还未出现具有这些功能的产品。
AI趋势导致对数据库的需求不断增加,这反过来又对数据库管理员提出了越来越高的要求。具有AI功能的数据库管理工具能够帮助人类做更多的工作。
根据BLS的报告,2016年数据库管理员的平均薪资大约为84950美元,就业市场增长率为11%,高于平均水平。
新闻中似乎每天都有新的勒索软件和网络攻击,组织正在寻找任何可能的优势,以便应对与黑客和其他攻击者的斗争。许多下一代安全信息和事件管理(SIEM)以及用户和实体行为分析(UEBA)解决方案包括机器学习功能。该技术允许组织为其网络和系统建立正常活动的基准,然后检测可能已被其它安全工具(如防火墙和反恶意软件解决方案)忽视的异常活动。
鉴于目前的攻击不断增加,即使AI兴起,组织对IT安全人员的需求也不会很快下降。相反,AI能够增强人类员工的能力,使他们更好地完成工作。
BLS表示,安全分析师2016年的平均薪资为92600美元,增幅为18%,职位的增长速度远高于平均水平。
多年来,组织对软件开发人员的需求持续走高,薪水更是一日千里。一些厂商已经开始提供低代码或无代码工具,帮助普通用户创建简单的应用程序。微软和剑桥大学的研究人员也在尝试开发能够编写代码的AI。像许多人类程序员一样,AI会检查现有的应用程序,以帮助创建有效的解决方案。
这种AI还远远不能自行编写整个程序,但是这些功能很快就可以帮助更多的人类员工开发软件了。这有助于减轻一些人才短缺的局面。
BLS数据显示,软件开发人员在2016年的平均薪资为102280美元,就业增长率为17%,远高于平均水平。
http://www.informationweek.com/strategic-cio/10-it-jobs-that-will-be-done-by-ai/d/d-id/1329310
7/10/2017
10:00 AM
In conversations about the impact that artificial intelligence (AI) will have on human jobs, the extremes get a lot of attention. On the one hand, blaring headlines warn that a robot will take your job, while on the other, some scoffing experts say AI will never replace human workers.
However, a growing chorus of voices seems to be taking a position closer to the middle. A 2017 PwC survey found that although 46% of people believe that AI will eliminate some jobs, a majority believe that AI will be good for the human race overall. Among those surveyed, 63% believed AI will help solve complex problems that plague modern societies, and 53% said it will help people lead more fulfilling lives.
While AI and robots likely will take over some tedious manual tasks, this may free workers up for other activities or help address critical talent shortages. In some fields, humans and machines may work together collaboratively to accomplish more than they could independently. In addition, the opportunities made possible by machine learning and related technologies could actually create new jobs.
According to researchers at McKinsey, "While automation will eliminate very few occupations entirely in the next decade, it will affect portions of almost all jobs to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the type of work they entail." The firm says that US workers, including those with very high salaries, spend about a third of their time collecting and processing data, a task that could be more handled more efficiently by machines.
Stephen Prentice, vice president and Gartner Fellow, says, "Ultimately, AI and humans will differentiate themselves from each other. AI is most successful in addressing problems that are reasonably well-defined and narrow in scope, whereas humans excel at defining problems that need to be solved and at solving complex problems. They bring a wide range of knowledge and skill to bear and can work through problems in various ways. They can collaborate with one another, and when situations change significantly, humans can adjust."
When it comes to IT jobs, artificial intelligence is already beginning to have an impact. Today, automation and machine learning tools can handle many tasks previously performed by humans. And Gartner predicts, "AI will eventually replace many routine functions of the IT organization, particularly on the operations side."
Many of the IT jobs likely to be affected by AI are in fields where current demand for talent is high. As machines become better at performing these tasks, it's possible that AI could replace human workers in some of these positions, leading to a poorer outlook for these jobs. However, it's also possible that artificial intelligence could simply make employees more efficient without displacing any human workers.
Which IT jobs will be performed — at least in part — by AI? Here are 10 likely candidates.
Helpdesk specialist
Several technology companies, including Facebook, Microsoft, IBM andAmazon Web Services, have introduced tools that help organizations build chatbots that can carry on conversations with customers. Many organizations have begun experimenting with using these chatbots to answer simple customer service or technical support questions. In addition, people seem open to using chatbots. A 2017 HubSpot survey found that while 57% of people said that they preferred getting help from humans, 40% said they didn’t care as long as they got their questions answered right away. Many of these chatbots incorporate machine learning technology, meaning that they will get better at answering questions over time.
While they may be able to handle only simple queries today, in the future, chatbots will get better at answering complex questions, reducing the need for human agents to answer customer questions.
However, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the median computer support specialist earned $52,160 per year in 2016, and the market for these workers is growing faster than average.
Systems administrator
Systems administrators, or sysadmins, are responsible for deploying, configuring, maintaining, monitoring and managing an organizations servers or other computer systems. Propelled by the DevOps trend, people in these professions have become increasingly reliant on automation in recent years to help them handle mundane tasks like server configuration and software updates. In addition, many monitoring tools are beginning to incorporate machine learning and AI capabilities, which can reduce the number of false alerts and, in some cases, warn sysadmins in advance of problems that are likely to occur so that they can take preventive action. This is likely a position where AI will augment the capabilities of human workers rather than replacing them entirely.
The BLS reports median pay for network and computer systems administrators was $79,700 per year in 2016, and the field is experiencing average growth.
Network administrator
In the same way that systems administrators manage and maintain an organization’s servers, network administrators are responsible for keeping an organization’s networks online and providing the levels of service that users expect. This includes configuring and updating equipment like routers, switches, gateways, hubs and access points, and in some cases the job also includes responsibility for network security.
Experts say that in order to enable true digital transformation, networks of the future will need AI capabilities in order to keep up with the pace of changes. Already, enterprises are taking steps in this direction with network management automation tools, some of which boast five-year ROI as high as 350%.
In its database, the BLS lumps network administrators in with systems administrators, so this group also has annual earnings around $79,700 with average job growth.
Storage administrator
Storage administrators handle the day-to-day maintenance tasks for storage hardware, including HDDs, SDDs and tape, as well as storage software. They make sure data is getting backed up on schedule, monitor the performance of the hardware, resolve issues and space shortages, optimize the storage for usage patterns, plan for future growth and deploy new hardware and software.
But storage experts point out that many of these manual tasks could be handled by automation and AI tools. And because they can analyze such large volumes of data, machine learning applications may be even better than humans at optimizing storage for I/O patterns, managing the data lifecycle and predicting hardware failures. In the near future, storage administrators may spend most of their time telling storage management software what to do, and then leaving the details of how it gets done up to the AI and automation tools.
The BLS doesn't break out storage administrators as a separate job title.
QA/Testing associate
Before organizations can deploy internal or customer-facing applications, those applications must be thoroughly tested to see how they will perform under real-world conditions. Quality assurance (QA) or testing associates already use tools that automate much of this process. Vendors like Infosysare working on incorporating machine learning into their QA solutions in order to optimize the testing process, better analyze testing logs and diagnose and resolve problems more quickly. In this case, AI and humans will likely work together, with the AI helping the human workers complete tasks work quickly and with a higher degree of proficiency.
The BLS doesn't track salary and job outlook for quality assurance and testing professionals, but the Robert Half Technology 2017 Salary Guide for Technical Professionals says that a QA Associate/Analyst in the United States can expect to earn between $67,000 and $102,750 in 2017, a 2.7% increase over 2016.
Project manager
It may seem counterintuitive to put the complicated area of project management on the list of jobs that could be handled by AI, but Gartner specifically called out project managers as one of the IT job titles at risk of being replaced — at least partially — by AI.
A typical project manager spends a lot of time collecting and inputting data about who has done what. An AI system could easily take over the task of nagging team members to update their status or, even better, collecting that data automatically without the need for human input. In addition, project managers frequently need to estimate how long a project will take and how much it will cost. Machine learning tools may be able to complete this task more accurately by drawing on vast stores of data about similar past projects. In addition, AIs are also very good at allocating resources and setting up schedules.
A few tools with some of these capabilities are already on the market, and in the future, AI will likely further augment the capabilities of project managers, allowing them to handle more projects at once.
The BLS groups project managers in with computer and information systems managers. The group earned around $135,800 in 2016, and jobs in the field are growing 15% per year, which is much faster than average. The Robert Half Salary Guide says that product managers are making between $107,750 and $159,000 in 2017, which is 3.2% more than in 2016.
Data analyst
As the big data trend has swept through American industries, many more people have become involved in data analysis. In fact, demand for highly skilled data scientists is so high that organizations have already begun turning to artificial intelligence in order to allow data analysts with less education to perform some highly advanced analytics.
Many of today's predictive analytics tools incorporate machine learning capabilities, allowing data analysts to process more data more quickly and come up with valuable insights to guide their companies. This is an area where AI isn't replacing workers as much as allowing humans to do more work. In some cases, AI technology is actually increasing demand for workers who can use these tools.
The BLS doesn't track data analysts as a separate job category, but the Robert Half IT Salary Guide says people with the data analyst/report writer job title are earning between $77,500 and $118,750 in 2017, which is 3.8% more than in 2016.
Database administrator
Database administrators, or DBAs, handle tasks like deploying, configuring, optimizing, tuning, monitoring, managing and troubleshooting databases. Some computer scientists have proposed that artificial intelligence could perform some of these jobs, particularly monitoring performance and diagnosing and resolving issues. However, no products with these capabilities seem to be on the market yet.
The artificial intelligence trend is increasing demand on databases, which in turn is putting increasing demands on DBAs. Database management tools with AI capabilities might be able to help human workers get more done, particularly as demand continues to grow.
According to the BLS, median pay for DBAs hovered around $84,950 in 2016, and the job market has a growth rate of 11%, which is faster than average.
Security administrator
With new ransomware and cyberattacks in the news seemingly every day, organizations are looking for any advantage they can get in their fight against hackers and other attackers. Many next-generation security information and event management (SIEM) and user and entity behavior analytics (UEBA) solutions include machine learning capabilities. This technology allows organizations to establish a baseline of normal activity for their networks and systems and then detect anomalous activity that might have gone unnoticed by other security tools like firewalls and antimalware solutions.
Given the current rise in attacks, it seems unlikely that demand for IT security personnel will decline anytime soon, even with the rise of AI. Instead, AI will likely augment the capabilities of the human staff, enabling them to do their jobs better.
The BLS says that security analysts earned median pay of $92,600 last year, and with 18% growth, the job title is growing much faster than average.
Software developer
Demand for software developers has been extremely high for several years, sending salaries into the stratosphere. As a solution, some vendors have begun offering low-code or no-code tools that allow average business users to create simple applications. Researchers at Microsoft and the University of Cambridge have also experimented with AI that is learning to write code itself. Like many human programmers, the AI examines existing applications to find help in creating solutions that might work.
This AI is far from being able to write an entire program from scratch on its own, but these sorts of capabilities could soon put software development within the capabilities of more human workers. And that could help relieve some of the talent shortages in the field.
BLS data shows that software developers were paid around $102,280 in 2016, and the job growth rate is 17%, which is much faster than average.
附件:
《10 IT Jobs That Will Be Done by AI》--原文.pdf
《10 IT Jobs That Will Be Done by AI》--译文.pdf
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